The Valuation Guessing Game in Startup Investing

CHART OF THE WEEK

Are crowdfunding investors being given the full picture? We analyzed 880 equity deals to see whether startups clearly disclose their valuations—and the results reveal a major transparency gap. While most Reg CF campaigns make valuation easy to find, nearly 80% of Reg A+ deals require investors to calculate it themselves. Platform design also plays a major role, with some marketplaces disclosing valuations almost universally and others leaving investors guessing.

Have a suggestion for a data story you’d like us to look into? Submit by replying to this email.

EVENTS

Investment Crowdfunding Week returns April 13–15 with Tim Draper opening the conversation on the future of startup investing, investor fireside sessions covering alternative assets, the creator economy, and what comes after your raise, plus 20 Kingscrowd-vetted companies pitching live in a bracket-style competition — register free and vote to crown the $5,000 investment grand prize winner.

KINGSCROWD PODCAST

Retail investors are gaining more access to private markets — but that doesn’t mean those investments behave like stocks.

This week on the Kingscrowd Podcast, Brian and Scott break down Fundrise’s Innovation Fund and why its early trading price diverged so sharply from underlying value.

The bigger takeaway:

• Access ≠ liquidity

• Exposure ≠ ownership

• Private markets ≠ public markets

As more retail capital enters private investing, understanding timelines, structure, and risk is becoming essential — not optional.

PITCH REVIEW 💸

By Léa Bouhelier-Gautreau \ Deal Report

Brief: Alaffia is a clean personal care brand offering everyday products like soap, lotion, shampoo, and baby care essentials, built around ingredient integrity and traditional West African inputs such as shea butter and African black soap. Now operating under Ayeya Inc after a 2025 asset acquisition, the company serves value-conscious consumers seeking “clean” and ethically sourced products without premium pricing. Alaffia differentiates itself through a vertically integrated, fair trade supply chain that pays above-market rates and reinvests in producer communities, aligning everyday purchases with social impact.

Léa’s Quick Take: 

I’ve seen so many clean beauty raises that I expected Alaffia to be just another one. I was wrong. This story is different.

Alaffia’s founder, Olowo-n’djo Tchala, started the company 22 years ago to create clean beauty products inspired by his Togolese roots. Through a vertically integrated supply chain, Alaffia works to ensure that everyone involved in producing its ingredients is paid fairly.

That strategy worked. Tchala grew the business to $40 million in annual revenue before selling it to a private equity firm in 2022. Under the firm’s management, growth stalled. Tchala then made the decision to reacquire 50% of the company and take back control.

So far, that move appears to be paying off. Revenue grew from $759,000 in 2023 to $2.1 million in 2024, and then to $11.8 million in 2025 gross sales. That kind of rebound is impressive. It does raise a question, though: how much of this growth is driven by returning customers versus new ones?

Either way, Alaffia is back in the hands of the founder who turned his country’s traditions into a multi-million dollar business. At a fair valuation, the story behind this deal makes it worth a closer look.

In any case, Alaffia is back in the hands of the man who turned his home country's tradition into a multi-million dollar business. At a fair valuation, the story behind this deal makes it worth looking at.

STAFF PICKS 🌶️

Sunday Supper

By Léa Bouhelier-Gautreau

Sunday Supper is trying to turn vegan Italian frozen food into a five-star freezer aisle feast. After a bit of cooling in 2024, revenue is finally starting to bubble and simmer again. But before investors dig in, they’ll need to peel back each layer of this deal—like a good lasagna—to decide if it’s truly worth a seat at the table.

TibaRay

By Teddy Lyons

TibaRay offers next-gen radiotherapy technology enabling 400x faster FLASH treatments for cancer via advanced linac systems. It has secured $27M+ prior funding with $14M grants, holds 20+ patents, and launched its first commercial partnership.

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