Geopolitics vs. Crowdfunding: What Five Years of Reg CF Data Shows

CHART OF THE WEEK

Do geopolitical shocks affect the crowdfunding market? We analyzed five years of Regulation Crowdfunding activity against four major armed conflict events—from the Ukraine invasion to Iran-Israel strikes (in 2024)—to see whether startup investors react the same way as public markets. The result: the Reg CF market appears largely resilient to geopolitical shocks, though energy startups show a clear structural connection to global instability.

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EVENTS

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UPCOMING EVENTS

PITCH REVIEW 💸

By Léa Bouhelier-Gautreau \ Deal Report

Brief: Harmony Baby Nutrition develops clean, human milk-inspired formulas made with natural lactose and HMOs to support gut and immune health. Harmony has filed four patents, built 55 product prototypes, and collaborates with pediatric allergy and immunology experts from leading institutions.

Léa’s Quick Take: 

Today’s infant formulas are still far from breast milk. They rely on cow’s milk or whey proteins, carbohydrates like lactose or corn syrup, and even when companies try to replicate breast milk’s composition, they rarely get close. Enter Harmony. The company aims to produce human milk proteins through precision fermentation.

Most formulas today rely on cow’s milk proteins that are either modified or broken down to improve tolerance. Harmony’s strategy instead is to replace those proteins entirely with bioidentical human versions, which could improve digestibility and reduce allergy risk if successfully commercialized.

Formula will never be as good as breast milk. But Harmony could bring to market a product that gets much closer: potentially replicating up to 90% of its composition. That would be a meaningful improvement for many parents, especially those who would like to breastfeed but cannot for a variety of reasons.

Getting there will take time and capital. The company estimates it will need at least $17 million and several years to commercialize its fermentation-based formula. In the meantime, Harmony plans to launch a toddler hypoallergenic product that bridges a gap in the market: there are very few lactose-first hypoallergenic formulas, and existing options rely on additives like maltodextrin, a cheap filler. Harmony’s Melodi product could help the company navigate existing regulatory pathways and reach the market sooner.

Harmony is backed by several venture capital firms as well as IndieBio, a prominent biotech accelerator known for supporting companies in synthetic biology and food technology. Harmony is positioning itself less as a traditional formula brand and more as a biotech-enabled nutrition company.

Still, translating fermentation technology into the infant formula market will not be straightforward. Infant nutrition is one of the most tightly regulated food categories, and manufacturing at the required safety and scale presents meaningful challenges. Harmony’s concept is compelling, but its success will likely depend on whether it can successfully develop, validate, and produce human milk proteins at commercial scale — and raise the capital needed to do so.

STAFF PICKS 🌶️

illumicell AI

By Teddy Lyons

illumicell AI is developing real-time AI-powered cellular diagnostics for point-of-care testing, starting with male fertility. The company has already raised a $2M pre-seed round, secured LOIs from fertility clinics in US, Japan, Switzerland, and plans FDA submission in 2026.

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